Missiles, mines, attacks on ships, US blockade, Iran’s closure – the Strait of Hormuz has de facto been closed since the start of the Middle East conflict since late February. Several weeks later, India – an economy dependent on the world for 90% of its crude needs – has managed its oil supply situation better than most expected. With no big strategic petroleum reserves to boast of compared to economies like the US, China, and Japan, India has made use of its crude diversification strategy and strong ties with Russia to tide over one of its worst crude oil supply shocks in several years.Which is not to say that all is well when it comes to its energy supplies. The Strait of Hormuz is responsible for one-fifth of the world’s crude oil trade. But it is equally important for India’s LPG and LNG supplies, which have been hit by the supply crunch.Also Read | PM Modi’s UAE visit: How India will benefit from agreements on strategic petroleum reserves, LPG – explainedYet in all of this, crude availability is resilient. According to the government, India has around 60 days of petroleum supplies in various forms including strategic reserves. But if 20% of the world’s crude supply remains disrupted over 2.5 months of the war, where is India getting its oil from?
India’s Crude Procurement Strategy
According to Sumit Ritolia, Manager Modelling and Refining at Kpler, India’s crude import strategy has shifted significantly since March 2026 as Strait of Hormuz disruptions tightened Middle Eastern flows and increased freight and logistical risks. At the same time, Indian refiners have aggressively diversified toward the Atlantic Basin and non-Strait of Hormuz-linked barrels, increasing purchases from the US, Brazil, West Africa, and Venezuela to offset weaker Iraqi and Gulf flows. “The shift has not been a direct replacement of Middle Eastern barrels from a single source, but rather a broader re-optimisation of the crude slate based on availability, refinery compatibility, freight economics, and sanctions exposure. Refiners have remained more aggressive buyers of Russian and opportunistic Atlantic Basin barrels, along with bypassed flow of Saudi and UAE grades where available,” Ritolia tells TOI.As a result, India has increasingly relied on Russian and Atlantic Basin supply to reduce dependence on direct Strait of Hormuz-linked barrels while maintaining refinery throughput and export economics.
Russian oil forms backbone of oil supply
Russia has dominated India’s crude imports since the war with Ukraine in 2022. The Donald Trump administration’s sanctions dented supplies from December 2025 to February 2026, but Russian crude still remained the highest component of India’s crude import basket.Come March 2026, with the US-Iran war, Russian oil flows to India reached levels last seen a few years ago when the latter was bagging crude at huge discounts. This time, however, Russian crude is being bought at a premium as global crude oil prices remain high. The surge in volumes has been helped by the Trump administration’s decision to temporarily waive sanctions on Russian crude at sea to stabilise global crude oil prices. The waiver, first granted in March has been revised twice since. India on its part has maintained that its decision to buy crude oil is governed by energy security needs and economics of oil – waiver or no waiver. However, a waiver undeniably makes it more economically viable to bag Russian crude from all oil majors including Rosneft and Lukoil which form part of the sanctions list.And hence, in the face of Strait of Hormuz closure, Russian crude oil’s dominance has only increased.According to Sumit Ritolia, Manager Modelling and Refining at Kpler, Russian crude has remained the backbone of India’s import slate, with flows recovering back toward ~1.9–2.0 Mbd in March after easing earlier in the year. May import is around 1.9 mbd till date with overall expected to be around 1.8-1.9 mbd. Estimates based on Kpler data show that Russia has supplied over 140 million barrels of crude to India since the start of the US-Iran war.Critically, Russian crude-via Baltic, Black Sea, or Pacific routes, remains fully outside Hormuz risk.
Middle East supplies through alternative routes
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut amid the West Asia conflict, India’s crude imports in April fell to around 4.4 mbpd (from approximately 5.2 mbpd), as nearly 50% of its supplies (around 2.5 mbpd) normally transit the chokepoint. Iraqi imports dropped to nearly zero and Gulf flows were sharply curtailed, says Sourav Mitra, Partner – Oil & Gas, Grant Thornton Bharat.
“In response to this, Indian refiners pivoted to a diversified mix, led by Russia ( around 30–37% or 1.5–1.7 mbpd), alongside Saudi Arabia (which was 0.65–0.70 mbpd) and the UAE (0.60–0.62 mbpd), with additional barrels coming in from Venezuela, Brazil, and minimal Iranian cargoes,” he explains.But if Hormuz is closed, through which route are the supplies from Middle East countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia reaching India? “Middle East supplies are being rerouted through Saudi’s East-West pipeline to Yanbu (Red Sea) and the UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, together offering significant bypass capacity, enabling flows via Yanbu to India and Fujairah to India while non-Gulf crude continues on open-ocean routes,” Mitra explains.
“However, these re-routings add around 4-10 days via the Red Sea route and other longer global diversions. These increase freight costs, even as India sustains supply through diversification,” he adds.
The return of Venezuela in the mix
Venezuelan crude has also made a notable return to India in recent months, and this has helped partially offset the decline in Gulf-linked supply. India had stopped buying crude from Venezuela after US sanctions. However, with the Trump administration’s moves in Venezuela, it is now back in India’s import basket. Venezuelan crude imports into India have risen sharply in recent months, reaching the highest levels seen in several years. In fact, as is evident from the chart above, despite supplying oil to India only in April and May so far, Venezuela has made its way into the top 5 crude oil suppliers for India since the US-Iran war began.“The increase has been driven by the opening of the oil sector in Venezuela, more availability, favorable pricing, and refiners seeking heavier replacement barrels amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Venezuelan grades have become particularly attractive for complex Indian refiners as they help offset the growing share of lighter crude in the import slate while supporting secondary unit utilization and middle distillate yields,” says Sumit Ritolia.
Global supply crunch: India’s crude imports decline
But even as it maintains adequate crude oil stocks in an uncertain global environment, India’s overall crude imports have declined in recent months. According to Kpler data, they are running roughly 700–800 kbd below the typical import levels as tighter global crude availability and ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions have constrained flows into Asia. “While refiners have diversified aggressively toward Russian, Venezuelan, US, and Atlantic Basin barrels, the market remains structurally tight and replacement volumes are not fully offsetting lost Middle Eastern availability,” Kpler’s Ritolia cautions.Looking ahead, the Kpler expert sees no clear visibility yet on a full normalisation of Strait of Hormuz flows. “India’s crude import mix is likely to remain broadly similar to current patterns. Russian barrels are expected to remain the backbone of the import slate, supplemented by higher Atlantic Basin and Venezuelan crude intake as refiners continue prioritising supply security, refinery optimisation, and freight economics over traditional sourcing patterns,” he concludes.Even as it looks to secure supplies amid global disruptions, India is also indirectly looking to curb demand through petrol and diesel price hikes. While helping oil marketing companies partially recover losses with crude prices above $100, the recent petrol and diesel price hikes also ends up discouraging unnecessary consumption, and hence controlling demand. Petrol and diesel prices have recently been hiked by Rs 3.90 per litre after four years of no revision. The government has also imposed a windfall gains tax to discourage refiners from exporting petrol and diesel products to secure supply for domestic needs.Also Read | Petrol, diesel price hikes: How India’s fuel price rise compares to US, China, Pakistan, UAE & other economies